- ! Start probabilities are over-generous for 4 team(s) (worst: Argentina implies 16.8 starters vs 11). Fringe starters are less nailed than shown — confirm with announced XIs.
Scouting Bonus Console
Ranks low-owned World Cup players by their real routes to the Scouting Bonus — projections from market odds and real player stats, with a live squad optimiser, transfer planner and backtesting.
Highest final expected points among sub-5% players (base points + expected Scouting Bonus − risk). The squad builder assembles these into a valid, optimised 15-man squad.
- DEF3.9%Marcos LlorenteSpain @ France · Clean sheet+0.733.9
- MID1.1%Aurélien TchouaméniFrance v Spain · Tackles+0.554.1
- MID1.3%Fabián RuizSpain @ France · Goal threat+0.444.0
- MID2.0%Marcus RashfordEngland v Argentina · Goal threat+0.423.8
- FWD3.5%Lautaro MartínezArgentina @ England · Goal threat+0.452.4
- MID0.2%Giovani Lo CelsoArgentina @ England · Goal threat+0.413.0
- MID2.1%Adrien RabiotFrance v Spain · Assists / set pieces+0.293.0
- MID2.6%RodriSpain @ France · Tackles+0.233.1
model/config/scoring_rules.yaml · v1
- Appearance 60+
- +2
- Assist
- +3
- DEF/GK clean sheet
- +5
- MID goal
- +6
- FWD goal
- +5
- Scouting Bonus
- +2 · <5% · >4pts
Highly owned (≥7%) players the model rates as unlikely starters (under 55% start) — backup keepers, super-subs, rotation risks. Fade the field here: a trap the crowd captains is as valuable to avoid as a differential is to find.
Sub-5% players most likely to post a big score — the upside that can justify a points hit. Sorted by ceiling × haul probability.
Odds blended with each side's actual tournament output. A favourite priced high but producing little is where knockout upsets live — fade heavy stacks there, and trim clean-sheet/captain confidence in likely extra-time games.
Sustainable = returns keep coming AND the underlying rates support them. One-off = a spike the player's routes can't explain — trap risk if chased.
| Strategy | Shape | Raw XI pts | vs Max | Ceiling | Floor | Avg own | Scout bonus | Captain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maximum points | 3-4-3 | 61.9 | — | 130 | 10 | 31.8% | +1.4 | Kylian Mbappé |
| Mini-League Chase | 3-5-2 | 59.7 | −2.1 | 126 | 10 | 25.0% | +3.9 | Kylian Mbappé |
| Balanced | 3-4-3 | 59.6 | −2.2 | 125 | 10 | 25.6% | +3.2 | Kylian Mbappé |
| Scouting Bonus | 4-5-1 | 36.3 | −25.5 | 81 | 4 | 1.9% | +6.3 | Aurélien Tchouaméni |
| Wildcard (multi-week) | 3-5-2 | 60.8 | −1 | 127 | 10 | 26.4% | +1.9 | Kylian Mbappé |
Scouting Bonus: This squad chases scouting bonus but gives up ~25.5 expected raw points vs Maximum Points. Use only if you are chasing aggressively.
“Raw XI pts” excludes scouting bonus — the honest comparison. “vs Max” is the expectation each strategy sacrifices against pure Maximum Points. Switch strategy live on the Squad page.
Best players to own through the knockouts — GW3 points plus expected points across future rounds, weighted by their team's chance of progressing. Useful when you only have 2 transfers a week.
Data source: real ownership/form; market odds (2/2 fixtures); api-football rates (70 players) · all underlying inputs are illustrative. Run python model/scripts/build_projections.py --matchday 7 to refresh.