- ! Start probabilities are over-generous for 7 team(s) (worst: Norway implies 17.5 starters vs 11). Fringe starters are less nailed than shown — confirm with announced XIs.
- ! Saved squad is for round 5, projections are round 6 — sync your team after making transfers.
Scouting Bonus Console
Ranks low-owned World Cup players by their real routes to the Scouting Bonus — projections from market odds and real player stats, with a live squad optimiser, transfer planner and backtesting.
Highest final expected points among sub-5% players (base points + expected Scouting Bonus − risk). The squad builder assembles these into a valid, optimised 15-man squad.
- DEF4.0%Marcos LlorenteSpain v Belgium · Clean sheet+1.045.7
- MID4.7%Bukayo SakaEngland @ Norway · Assists / set pieces+0.806.0
- MID4.3%Désiré DouéFrance v Morocco · Goal threat+0.705.4
- MID0.9%Aurélien TchouaméniFrance v Morocco · Assists / set pieces+0.584.3
- MID3.6%Youri TielemansBelgium @ Spain · Goal threat+0.403.6
- MID2.0%Marcus RashfordEngland @ Norway · Goal threat+0.614.8
- FWD1.9%Romelu LukakuBelgium @ Spain · Goal threat+0.583.3
- MID0.5%Nicolas RaskinBelgium @ Spain · Assists / set pieces+0.453.5
model/config/scoring_rules.yaml · v1
- Appearance 60+
- +2
- Assist
- +3
- DEF/GK clean sheet
- +5
- MID goal
- +6
- FWD goal
- +5
- Scouting Bonus
- +2 · <5% · >4pts
Highly owned (≥7%) players the model rates as unlikely starters (under 55% start) — backup keepers, super-subs, rotation risks. Fade the field here: a trap the crowd captains is as valuable to avoid as a differential is to find.
Sub-5% players most likely to post a big score — the upside that can justify a points hit. Sorted by ceiling × haul probability.
Odds blended with each side's actual tournament output. A favourite priced high but producing little is where knockout upsets live — fade heavy stacks there, and trim clean-sheet/captain confidence in likely extra-time games.
- → England is priced at 57% but its recent output is 1.5 SD below the alive-team average — fade heavy stacks.
- → Argentina is priced at 59% but its recent output is 1.0 SD below the alive-team average — fade heavy stacks.
- → Switzerland is out-performing its price (recent output +0.5 SD) — live upset candidate; its defenders are viable differentials.
Sustainable = returns keep coming AND the underlying rates support them. One-off = a spike the player's routes can't explain — trap risk if chased.
| Strategy | Shape | Raw XI pts | vs Max | Ceiling | Floor | Avg own | Scout bonus | Captain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maximum points | 4-3-3 | 81.2 | — | 166 | 12 | 29.0% | +1.8 | Kylian Mbappé |
| Mini-League Chase | 4-3-3 | 80.3 | −1 | 163 | 12 | 27.7% | +3.1 | Kylian Mbappé |
| Balanced | 4-3-3 | 79.2 | −2 | 161 | 12 | 27.5% | +3.9 | Kylian Mbappé |
| Scouting Bonus | 4-5-1 | 48.6 | −32.6 | 100 | 6 | 2.7% | +8.1 | Bukayo Saka |
| Wildcard (multi-week) | 4-3-3 | 80.0 | −1.2 | 162 | 13 | 32.0% | +1.5 | Kylian Mbappé |
Scouting Bonus: This squad chases scouting bonus but gives up ~32.6 expected raw points vs Maximum Points. Use only if you are chasing aggressively.
“Raw XI pts” excludes scouting bonus — the honest comparison. “vs Max” is the expectation each strategy sacrifices against pure Maximum Points. Switch strategy live on the Squad page.
Best players to own through the knockouts — GW3 points plus expected points across future rounds, weighted by their team's chance of progressing. Useful when you only have 2 transfers a week.
Data source: real ownership/form; market odds (4/4 fixtures); api-football rates (141 players) · all underlying inputs are illustrative. Run python model/scripts/build_projections.py --matchday 6 to refresh.