WWCFxWorld Cup Fantasy Advanced Model
Matchday123
Matchday 3 · Wildcard · Scouting Bonus strategy

Scouting Bonus Console

A Monte-Carlo projection model ranks low-owned World Cup players by their real routes to the Scouting Bonus. Phase 2 ships the model; the 15-man squad optimiser arrives in Phase 3.

Open player table →
Players projected
1242
20,000 sims each
Under 5%
1176
scouting eligible
Top-15 bonus
+14.1
expected scouting pts
Last refresh
17 Jun, 16:57 UTC
model 0.2.0-mc
Top scouting-eligible picksBuild squad →

Highest final expected points among sub-5% players (base points + expected Scouting Bonus − risk). The squad builder assembles these into a valid, optimised 15-man squad.

  • FWD
    Alexander Isak
    Sweden @ Japan · Goal threat
    3.5%
    +1.39
    9.9
  • FWD
    Lautaro Martínez
    Argentina @ Jordan · Goal threat
    3.6%
    +1.26
    8.8
  • DEF
    Nathaniel Brown
    Germany @ Ecuador · Goal threat
    2.4%
    +1.18
    8.4
  • MID
    Yasin Ayari
    Sweden @ Japan · Goal threat
    1.0%
    +1.06
    8.1
  • MID
    Ryan Gravenberch
    Netherlands @ Tunisia · Assists / set pieces
    1.2%
    +1.11
    6.9
  • MID
    Enzo Fernández
    Argentina @ Jordan · Goal threat
    3.3%
    +1.04
    6.7
  • FWD
    Folarin Balogun
    USA @ Türkiye · Goal threat
    2.2%
    +0.98
    6.5
  • MID
    Crysencio Summerville
    Netherlands @ Tunisia · Goal threat
    0.8%
    +0.88
    6.2
Scoring rules · config-driven

model/config/scoring_rules.yaml · v1

Appearance 60+
+2
Assist
+3
DEF/GK clean sheet
+5
MID goal
+6
FWD goal
+5
Scouting Bonus
+2 · <5% · >4pts
Budget $100m · max 3/country · squad 2-5-5-3
Ownership movers · last 3hupdated 17 Jun, 17:24 UTC

Biggest ownership swings over the last ~3 hours — watch risers approaching the 5% line (they may lose scouting eligibility).

▲ Rising
  • FWDLionel Messi19.8→20.0%+0.2
  • GKEmiliano Martínez22.5→22.6%+0.1
  • GKYahia Fofana0.3→0.4%+0.1
  • GKMostafa Shobeir1.7→1.8%+0.1
  • FWDKylian Mbappé50.4→50.5%+0.1
  • MIDMichael Olise34.4→34.5%+0.1
▼ Falling
  • DEFNahuel Molina3.3→3.2%-0.1
  • FWDJulián Alvarez15.2→15.1%-0.1
  • DEFMaxim De Cuyper2.8→2.7%-0.1
  • DEFArthur Theate0.3→0.2%-0.1
  • FWDRomelu Lukaku2.1→2.0%-0.1
  • MIDGabriel Martinelli0.8→0.7%-0.1
Haul watch · low-owned, high ceiling

Sub-5% players most likely to post a big score — the upside that can justify a points hit. Sorted by ceiling × haul probability.

FWD
Alexander Isak
Sweden @ Japan · 3.5%
ceil 17
54% haul
DEF
Nathaniel Brown
Germany @ Ecuador · 2.4%
ceil 17
46% haul
FWD
Lautaro Martínez
Argentina @ Jordan · 3.6%
ceil 16
48% haul
MID
Yasin Ayari
Sweden @ Japan · 1.0%
ceil 16
46% haul
DEF
Nico Schlotterbeck
Germany @ Ecuador · 4.9%
ceil 16
38% haul
MID
Crysencio Summerville
Netherlands @ Tunisia · 0.8%
ceil 14
35% haul
Strategy comparison · same constraints, different objective
StrategyShapeXI ptsAvg ownScout bonusKO readyCaptain
Scouting Bonus3-4-385.32.7%+13.369Alexander Isak
Maximum points3-4-389.111.5%+8.271Lionel Messi
Balanced3-4-391.29.6%+10.571Alexander Isak
Wildcard (multi-week)4-3-385.613.4%+6.576Lionel Messi

Scouting trades raw points for sub-5% ownership; Wildcard maximises multi-week value (note the higher knockout readiness). Switch strategy live on the Squad page.

Wildcard watch · highest multi-week valuebuild wildcard squad →

Best players to own through the knockouts — GW3 points plus expected points across future rounds, weighted by their team's chance of progressing. Useful when you only have 2 transfers a week.

FWD
Lionel Messi
Argentina · 96% advance · 2.0 future games
20.7
ko 81
DEF
Nathaniel Brown
Germany · 92% advance · 1.9 future games
19.7
ko 78
FWD
Lautaro Martínez
Argentina · 96% advance · 2.0 future games
19.3
ko 81
FWD
Kylian Mbappé
France · 99% advance · 2.3 future games
17.6
ko 84
FWD
Kai Havertz
Germany · 92% advance · 1.9 future games
17.2
ko 78
FWD
Alexander Isak
Sweden · 68% advance · 1.2 future games
16.9
ko 58
Matchday 3 fixtures · model context
Switzerland v Canada
Wed 24 Jun, 19:00 UTC
Switzerland: 53% win · 38% CS
Canada: 23% win · 19% CS
Group B · Bc Place, Vancouver
Bosnia and Herzegovina v Qatar
Wed 24 Jun, 19:00 UTC
Bosnia and Herzegovina: 42% win · 34% CS
Qatar: 30% win · 27% CS
Group B · Lumen Field, Seattle, Washington
Morocco v Haiti
Wed 24 Jun, 22:00 UTC
Morocco: 56% win · 40% CS
Haiti: 20% win · 18% CS
Group C · Mercedes-benz Stadium, Atlanta, Georgia
Scotland v Brazil
Wed 24 Jun, 22:00 UTC
Scotland: 22% win · 22% CS
Brazil: 52% win · 41% CS
Group C · Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida
South Africa v Korea Republic
Thu 25 Jun, 01:00 UTC
South Africa: 25% win · 19% CS
Korea Republic: 51% win · 33% CS
Group A · Estadio Bbva, Guadalupe
Czechia v Mexico
Thu 25 Jun, 01:00 UTC
Czechia: 24% win · 19% CS
Mexico: 51% win · 35% CS
Group A · Estadio Banorte, Mexico City
Ecuador v Germany
Thu 25 Jun, 20:00 UTC
Ecuador: 14% win · 13% CS
Germany: 66% win · 44% CS
Group E · Metlife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey
Curaçao v Côte d'Ivoire
Thu 25 Jun, 20:00 UTC
Curaçao: 23% win · 16% CS
Côte d'Ivoire: 54% win · 33% CS
Group E · Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Tunisia v Netherlands
Thu 25 Jun, 23:00 UTC
Tunisia: 14% win · 8% CS
Netherlands: 69% win · 36% CS
Group F · Geha Field At Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri
Japan v Sweden
Thu 25 Jun, 23:00 UTC
Japan: 24% win · 11% CS
Sweden: 56% win · 25% CS
Group F · At&t Stadium, Arlington, Texas
Türkiye v USA
Fri 26 Jun, 02:00 UTC
Türkiye: 32% win · 18% CS
USA: 45% win · 24% CS
Group D · Sofi Stadium, Inglewood, California
Paraguay v Australia
Fri 26 Jun, 02:00 UTC
Paraguay: 31% win · 20% CS
Australia: 45% win · 28% CS
Group D · Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, California
Norway v France
Fri 26 Jun, 19:00 UTC
Norway: 32% win · 19% CS
France: 44% win · 25% CS
Group I · Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts
Senegal v Iraq
Fri 26 Jun, 19:00 UTC
Senegal: 63% win · 33% CS
Iraq: 18% win · 11% CS
Group I · Bmo Field, Toronto
Uruguay v Spain
Sat 27 Jun, 00:00 UTC
Uruguay: 23% win · 21% CS
Spain: 52% win · 39% CS
Group H · Estadio Akron, Guadalajara
Cabo Verde v Saudi Arabia
Sat 27 Jun, 00:00 UTC
Cabo Verde: 34% win · 29% CS
Saudi Arabia: 38% win · 31% CS
Group H · Nrg Stadium, Houston, Texas
New Zealand v Belgium
Sat 27 Jun, 03:00 UTC
New Zealand: 21% win · 17% CS
Belgium: 55% win · 36% CS
Group G · Bc Place, Vancouver
Egypt v IR Iran
Sat 27 Jun, 03:00 UTC
Egypt: 46% win · 35% CS
IR Iran: 28% win · 24% CS
Group G · Lumen Field, Seattle, Washington
Croatia v Ghana
Sat 27 Jun, 21:00 UTC
Croatia: 54% win · 35% CS
Ghana: 23% win · 17% CS
Group L · Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Panama v England
Sat 27 Jun, 21:00 UTC
Panama: 9% win · 9% CS
England: 75% win · 50% CS
Group L · Metlife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey
Congo DR v Uzbekistan
Sat 27 Jun, 23:30 UTC
Congo DR: 42% win · 30% CS
Uzbekistan: 32% win · 24% CS
Group K · Mercedes-benz Stadium, Atlanta, Georgia
Colombia v Portugal
Sat 27 Jun, 23:30 UTC
Colombia: 20% win · 15% CS
Portugal: 58% win · 36% CS
Group K · Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida
Jordan v Argentina
Sun 28 Jun, 02:00 UTC
Jordan: 6% win · 5% CS
Argentina: 83% win · 51% CS
Group J · At&t Stadium, Arlington, Texas
Algeria v Austria
Sun 28 Jun, 02:00 UTC
Algeria: 19% win · 13% CS
Austria: 60% win · 35% CS
Group J · Geha Field At Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri

Data source: sample · all underlying inputs are illustrative. Run python model/scripts/build_projections.py --matchday 3 to refresh.