Prediction Accuracy
After a round finishes, we score the predictions against actual fantasy points (FIFA feed) — error, ranking, scouting-bonus calibration, and how the recommended XI did. The hints feed back into tuning the model.
attacking-output multiplier the tuner learned per position (1.0 = no change)
predicted chance to clear threshold vs what actually happened
| Bucket | Predicted | Observed | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20% | 10% | 13% | 23 |
| 20-40% | 25% | 13% | 8 |
- XI actual points (capt ×2)
- 93.0
- Captain
- Kylian Mbappé (17 pts)
- Captain rank in XI
- #2 of 11
- Best captain (hindsight)
- Bukayo Saka
- Avg player (field)
- 3.27 pts
where the model flatters players — chasing differentials is only right if the low-owned buckets aren't inflated
- →MID: under-predicting by 1.04 — adjust MID rates.
- →FWD: under-predicting by 1.09 — adjust FWD rates.
Every squad's real score vs the hindsight-best XIs, plus every big miss classified to the model factor that caused it — so each round makes the next projection better.
- MIDBukayo Saka4.4 →21
Low goal prior (4%) but hauled 21 — likely a finishing spike. Check role support before chasing.
- MIDDeclan Rice2.8 →13
Scored 13 largely through tackle/chance volume the per-90 rates didn't credit (model expected 0.6 pts from those routes).
- FWDKylian Mbappé8.4 →17
Returned 17 vs 8.4 projected — team/fixture strength for this matchup was likely underrated.
- FWDFerran Torres2.1 →9
Model gave him only 53% to start, but he played and returned 9. The appearance model missed his role.
- MIDEberechi Eze1.5 →7
Model gave him only 34% to start, but he played and returned 7. The appearance model missed his role.
- MIDNico Williams1.6 →7
Model gave him only 34% to start, but he played and returned 7. The appearance model missed his role.
- DEFTheo Hernández3.2 →-2
Projected 73 minutes but recorded 0 points — benched, unused or the round hadn't scored him. Start model called this wrong.
- GKMike Maignan3.2 →-2
Projected 74 minutes but recorded 0 points — benched, unused or the round hadn't scored him. Start model called this wrong.
- MIDDésiré Doué4.7 →1
Played but blanked (1 vs 4.7 projected) — mostly variance.
- FWDLionel Messi5.4 →2
Played but blanked (2 vs 5.4 projected) — mostly variance.
- MIDEnzo Fernández3.1 →0
Projected 74 minutes but recorded 0 points — benched, unused or the round hadn't scored him. Start model called this wrong.
- FWDMikel Oyarzabal4.9 →2
Played but blanked (2 vs 4.9 projected) — mostly variance.
- 7×Variance blank — played, no returns; only act if it repeats
- 3×Start-probability model (appearances / rotation signal)
- 3×Start-probability model (predicted a start that didn't happen)
- 2×One-off finishing spike — do NOT over-correct, check role support
- 2×Per-90 tackle / chance-created rates (volume routes)
- 2×Defensive scoring calibration (clean sheets, saves, conceded)
- 1×Team strength / fixture odds for this matchup
backtested 4 Aug, 08:15 UTC