Prediction Accuracy
After a round finishes, we score the predictions against actual fantasy points (FIFA feed) — error, ranking, scouting-bonus calibration, and how the recommended XI did. The hints feed back into tuning the model.
attacking-output multiplier the tuner learned per position (1.0 = no change)
predicted chance to clear threshold vs what actually happened
| Bucket | Predicted | Observed | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20% | 10% | 4% | 54 |
| 20-40% | 26% | 22% | 32 |
- XI actual points (capt ×2)
- 67.0
- Captain
- Kylian Mbappé (13 pts)
- Captain rank in XI
- #2 of 11
- Best captain (hindsight)
- Jude Bellingham
- Avg player (field)
- 2.78 pts
where the model flatters players — chasing differentials is only right if the low-owned buckets aren't inflated
Every squad's real score vs the hindsight-best XIs, plus every big miss classified to the model factor that caused it — so each round makes the next projection better.
- MIDJude Bellingham6.8 →14
Returned 14 vs 6.8 projected — team/fixture strength for this matchup was likely underrated.
- FWDDan Ndoye2.9 →10
Low goal prior (12%) but hauled 10 — likely a finishing spike. Check role support before chasing.
- MIDFabián Ruiz2.4 →9
Scored 9 largely through tackle/chance volume the per-90 rates didn't credit (model expected 0.3 pts from those routes).
- FWDAndreas Schjelderup3.2 →9
Low goal prior (7%) but hauled 9 — likely a finishing spike. Check role support before chasing.
- MIDAlexis Mac Allister3.4 →9
Scored 9 largely through tackle/chance volume the per-90 rates didn't credit (model expected 0.5 pts from those routes).
- MIDCharles De Ketelaere4.7 →10
Low goal prior (19%) but hauled 10 — likely a finishing spike. Check role support before chasing.
- FWDHarry Kane8.2 →3
Played but blanked (3 vs 8.2 projected) — mostly variance.
- MIDBradley Barcola5.9 →1
Played but blanked (1 vs 5.9 projected) — mostly variance.
- FWDMikel Oyarzabal6 →2
Ceiling pick projected 6.0 but returned 2. High-variance blank; the miss cost is amplified if captained.
- FWDBreel Embolo3.9 →0
Projected 73 minutes but recorded 0 points — benched, unused or the round hadn't scored him. Start model called this wrong.
- DEFPedro Porro5.9 →2
Played but blanked (2 vs 5.9 projected) — mostly variance.
- MIDÁlex Baena4.6 →1
Played but blanked (1 vs 4.6 projected) — mostly variance.
- 8×Variance blank — played, no returns; only act if it repeats
- 3×Team strength / fixture odds for this matchup
- 3×One-off finishing spike — do NOT over-correct, check role support
- 3×Per-90 tackle / chance-created rates (volume routes)
- 1×Defensive scoring calibration (clean sheets, saves, conceded)
- 1×Ceiling pick blanked — captaincy/exposure sizing, not projection
- 1×Start-probability model (predicted a start that didn't happen)
backtested 4 Aug, 08:15 UTC