Backtest · Matchday 1
Prediction Accuracy
After a round finishes, we score the predictions against actual fantasy points (FIFA feed) — error, ranking, scouting-bonus calibration, and how the recommended XI did. The hints feed back into tuning the model.
Model calibration · auto-tunedfrom rounds 1
attacking-output multiplier the tuner learned per position (1.0 = no change)
GK×1.23
was under-predicting
DEF×1.26
was under-predicting
MID×0.81
was over-predicting
FWD×0.64
was over-predicting
Players scored
658
Mean abs error
2.26
pts/player
Rank correlation
0.54
predicted vs actual
Bias
+0.18
over-predict
Scouting-bonus calibration
predicted chance to clear threshold vs what actually happened
| Bucket | Predicted | Observed | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20% | 12% | 8% | 325 |
| 20-40% | 28% | 25% | 241 |
| 40-60% | 46% | 42% | 36 |
| 60-80% | 65% | 40% | 5 |
Recommended XI · actual result
- XI actual points (capt ×2)
- 59.0
- Captain
- Ferran Torres (2 pts)
- Captain rank in XI
- #9 of 11
- Best captain (hindsight)
- Alexander Isak
- Avg player (field)
- 2.88 pts
Biggest prediction misses
MIDElijah Just
pred 3.3 · actual 16
MIDYasin Ayari
pred 4.8 · actual 17
DEFRamin Rezaeian
pred 3.2 · actual 13
FWDDeniz Undav
pred 4.5 · actual 14
GKVozinha
pred 1.5 · actual 11
FWDLionel Messi
pred 9.5 · actual 19
FWDFolarin Balogun
pred 5.7 · actual 15
DEFNathaniel Brown
pred 5 · actual 14
backtested 17 Jun, 19:57 UTC