Prediction Accuracy
After a round finishes, we score the predictions against actual fantasy points (FIFA feed) — error, ranking, scouting-bonus calibration, and how the recommended XI did. The hints feed back into tuning the model.
attacking-output multiplier the tuner learned per position (1.0 = no change)
predicted chance to clear threshold vs what actually happened
| Bucket | Predicted | Observed | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20% | 12% | 10% | 392 |
| 20-40% | 28% | 25% | 260 |
| 40-60% | 46% | 42% | 36 |
| 60-80% | 65% | 40% | 5 |
- XI actual points (capt ×2)
- 59.0
- Captain
- Ferran Torres (2 pts)
- Captain rank in XI
- #9 of 11
- Best captain (hindsight)
- Alexander Isak
- Avg player (field)
- 2.9 pts
where the model flatters players — chasing differentials is only right if the low-owned buckets aren't inflated
Every squad's real score vs the hindsight-best XIs, plus every big miss classified to the model factor that caused it — so each round makes the next projection better.
- MIDElijah Just3.3 →16
Scored 16 largely through tackle/chance volume the per-90 rates didn't credit (model expected 0.5 pts from those routes).
- MIDYasin Ayari4.8 →17
Low goal prior (16%) but hauled 17 — likely a finishing spike. Check role support before chasing.
- DEFRamin Rezaeian3.2 →13
DEF returned 13 vs 3.2 projected — clean-sheet/save/conceded points are systematically under-modelled for DEFs.
- FWDDeniz Undav4.5 →14
Model gave him only 30% to start, but he played and returned 14. The appearance model missed his role.
- GKVozinha1.5 →11
GK returned 11 vs 1.5 projected — clean-sheet/save/conceded points are systematically under-modelled for GKs.
- FWDLionel Messi9.5 →19
Returned 19 vs 9.5 projected — team/fixture strength for this matchup was likely underrated.
- FWDLautaro Martínez9.6 →1
Ceiling pick projected 9.6 but returned 1. High-variance blank; the miss cost is amplified if captained.
- FWDFerran Torres10.3 →2
Ceiling pick projected 10.3 but returned 2. High-variance blank; the miss cost is amplified if captained.
- FWDMikel Oyarzabal9.2 →2
Ceiling pick projected 9.2 but returned 2. High-variance blank; the miss cost is amplified if captained.
- FWDCody Gakpo8.4 →2
Ceiling pick projected 8.4 but returned 2. High-variance blank; the miss cost is amplified if captained.
- FWDDarwin Núñez6.5 →1
Ceiling pick projected 6.5 but returned 1. High-variance blank; the miss cost is amplified if captained.
- FWDGonçalo Ramos6.2 →1
Ceiling pick projected 6.2 but returned 1. High-variance blank; the miss cost is amplified if captained.
- 7×Ceiling pick blanked — captaincy/exposure sizing, not projection
- 4×Defensive scoring calibration (clean sheets, saves, conceded)
- 3×Team strength / fixture odds for this matchup
- 2×Variance blank — played, no returns; only act if it repeats
- 1×Per-90 tackle / chance-created rates (volume routes)
- 1×One-off finishing spike — do NOT over-correct, check role support
- 1×Start-probability model (appearances / rotation signal)
- 1×Start-probability model (predicted a start that didn't happen)
backtested 4 Aug, 08:15 UTC