Matchday 1 · Wildcard · Scouting Bonus strategy
Open player table →Scouting Bonus Console
A Monte-Carlo projection model ranks low-owned World Cup players by their real routes to the Scouting Bonus. Phase 2 ships the model; the 15-man squad optimiser arrives in Phase 3.
Players projected
1242
20,000 sims each
Under 5%
1176
scouting eligible
Top-15 bonus
+16.3
expected scouting pts
Last refresh
17 Jun, 07:49 UTC
model 0.2.0-mc
Top scouting-eligible picksBuild squad →
Highest final expected points among sub-5% players (base points + expected Scouting Bonus − risk). The squad builder assembles these into a valid, optimised 15-man squad.
- FWD3.8%Ferran TorresSpain v Cabo Verde · Goal threat+1.3710.1
- FWD3.7%Lautaro MartínezArgentina v Algeria · Goal threat+1.329.4
- FWD3.5%Alexander IsakSweden v Tunisia · Goal threat+1.238.5
- FWD3.7%Cody GakpoNetherlands v Japan · Goal threat+1.208.2
- FWD2.5%Breel EmboloSwitzerland @ Qatar · Goal threat+1.177.9
- FWD3.9%Raúl JiménezMexico v South Africa · Goal threat+1.107.5
- MID2.0%RodriSpain v Cabo Verde · Goal threat+1.046.7
- FWD1.2%Donyell MalenNetherlands v Japan · Goal threat+1.016.7
Scoring rules · config-driven
model/config/scoring_rules.yaml · v1
- Appearance 60+
- +2
- Assist
- +3
- DEF/GK clean sheet
- +5
- MID goal
- +6
- FWD goal
- +5
- Scouting Bonus
- +2 · <5% · >4pts
Budget $100m · max 3/country · squad 2-5-5-3
Ownership movers · last 5hupdated 17 Jun, 19:38 UTC
Biggest ownership swings over the last ~5 hours — watch risers approaching the 5% line (they may lose scouting eligibility).
▲ Rising
- FWDLionel Messi19.8→20.1%+0.3
- FWDKylian Mbappé50.4→50.6%+0.2
- DEFNathaniel Brown2.3→2.5%+0.2
- DEFCristian Romero5.4→5.5%+0.1
- GKEmiliano Martínez22.5→22.6%+0.1
- MIDVinícius Júnior14.1→14.2%+0.1
▼ Falling
- FWDJulián Alvarez15.2→15.0%-0.2
- FWDMikel Oyarzabal19.1→18.9%-0.2
- DEFNahuel Molina3.3→3.2%-0.1
- MIDNico Paz1.4→1.3%-0.1
- MIDMarcel Sabitzer3.7→3.6%-0.1
- DEFMaxim De Cuyper2.8→2.7%-0.1
Sub-5% players most likely to post a big score — the upside that can justify a points hit. Sorted by ceiling × haul probability.
FWD
Ferran Torres
Spain v Cabo Verde · 3.8%
ceil 18
56% haul
FWD
Lautaro Martínez
Argentina v Algeria · 3.7%
ceil 17
52% haul
FWD
Alexander Isak
Sweden v Tunisia · 3.5%
ceil 15
46% haul
FWD
Cody Gakpo
Netherlands v Japan · 3.7%
ceil 15
44% haul
FWD
Breel Embolo
Switzerland @ Qatar · 2.5%
ceil 14
43% haul
FWD
Raúl Jiménez
Mexico v South Africa · 3.9%
ceil 14
41% haul
| Strategy | Shape | XI pts | Avg own | Scout bonus | KO ready | Captain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scouting Bonus | 3-4-3 | 79.4 | 2.9% | +13.5 | 78 | Ferran Torres |
| Maximum points | 3-4-3 | 78.5 | 17.3% | +2.1 | 79 | Kai Havertz |
| Balanced | 3-4-3 | 80.0 | 3.8% | +11.9 | 78 | Ferran Torres |
| Wildcard (multi-week) | 3-4-3 | 80.4 | 15.6% | +6.3 | 82 | Ferran Torres |
Scouting trades raw points for sub-5% ownership; Wildcard maximises multi-week value (note the higher knockout readiness). Switch strategy live on the Squad page.
Wildcard watch · highest multi-week valuebuild wildcard squad →
Best players to own through the knockouts — GW3 points plus expected points across future rounds, weighted by their team's chance of progressing. Useful when you only have 2 transfers a week.
FWD
Ferran Torres
Spain · 98% advance · 2.2 future games
23.2
ko 84
FWD
Mikel Oyarzabal
Spain · 98% advance · 2.2 future games
22.6
ko 84
FWD
Lionel Messi
Argentina · 96% advance · 2.0 future games
22.1
ko 81
FWD
Kai Havertz
Germany · 92% advance · 1.9 future games
21.6
ko 78
FWD
Kylian Mbappé
France · 99% advance · 2.3 future games
21.6
ko 84
FWD
Lautaro Martínez
Argentina · 96% advance · 2.0 future games
20.5
ko 81
Mexico v South Africa
Thu 11 Jun, 19:00 UTC
Mexico: 63% win · 39% CS
South Africa: 17% win · 13% CS
Group A · Estadio Banorte, Mexico City
Korea Republic v Czechia
Fri 12 Jun, 02:00 UTC
Korea Republic: 44% win · 29% CS
Czechia: 31% win · 22% CS
Group A · Estadio Akron, Guadalajara
Canada v Bosnia and Herzegovina
Fri 12 Jun, 19:00 UTC
Canada: 49% win · 34% CS
Bosnia and Herzegovina: 26% win · 21% CS
Group B · Bmo Field, Toronto
USA v Paraguay
Sat 13 Jun, 01:00 UTC
USA: 44% win · 29% CS
Paraguay: 31% win · 22% CS
Group D · Sofi Stadium, Inglewood, California
Qatar v Switzerland
Sat 13 Jun, 19:00 UTC
Qatar: 21% win · 16% CS
Switzerland: 56% win · 36% CS
Group B · Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, California
Brazil v Morocco
Sat 13 Jun, 22:00 UTC
Brazil: 63% win · 38% CS
Morocco: 17% win · 13% CS
Group C · Metlife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey
Haiti v Scotland
Sun 14 Jun, 01:00 UTC
Haiti: 37% win · 27% CS
Scotland: 37% win · 26% CS
Group C · Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts
Australia v Türkiye
Sun 14 Jun, 04:00 UTC
Australia: 30% win · 23% CS
Türkiye: 44% win · 31% CS
Group D · Bc Place, Vancouver
Germany v Curaçao
Sun 14 Jun, 17:00 UTC
Germany: 77% win · 47% CS
Curaçao: 8% win · 7% CS
Group E · Nrg Stadium, Houston, Texas
Netherlands v Japan
Sun 14 Jun, 20:00 UTC
Netherlands: 64% win · 40% CS
Japan: 16% win · 13% CS
Group F · At&t Stadium, Arlington, Texas
Côte d'Ivoire v Ecuador
Sun 14 Jun, 23:00 UTC
Côte d'Ivoire: 47% win · 31% CS
Ecuador: 28% win · 21% CS
Group E · Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Sweden v Tunisia
Mon 15 Jun, 02:00 UTC
Sweden: 58% win · 36% CS
Tunisia: 20% win · 15% CS
Group F · Estadio Bbva, Guadalupe
Spain v Cabo Verde
Mon 15 Jun, 16:00 UTC
Spain: 78% win · 48% CS
Cabo Verde: 8% win · 7% CS
Group H · Mercedes-benz Stadium, Atlanta, Georgia
Belgium v Egypt
Mon 15 Jun, 19:00 UTC
Belgium: 58% win · 37% CS
Egypt: 20% win · 15% CS
Group G · Lumen Field, Seattle, Washington
Saudi Arabia v Uruguay
Mon 15 Jun, 22:00 UTC
Saudi Arabia: 27% win · 20% CS
Uruguay: 48% win · 32% CS
Group H · Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida
IR Iran v New Zealand
Tue 16 Jun, 01:00 UTC
IR Iran: 45% win · 32% CS
New Zealand: 30% win · 23% CS
Group G · Sofi Stadium, Inglewood, California
France v Senegal
Tue 16 Jun, 19:00 UTC
France: 61% win · 36% CS
Senegal: 18% win · 13% CS
Group I · Metlife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey
Iraq v Norway
Tue 16 Jun, 22:00 UTC
Iraq: 19% win · 15% CS
Norway: 59% win · 37% CS
Group I · Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts
Argentina v Algeria
Wed 17 Jun, 01:00 UTC
Argentina: 69% win · 42% CS
Algeria: 13% win · 10% CS
Group J · Geha Field At Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri
Austria v Jordan
Wed 17 Jun, 04:00 UTC
Austria: 60% win · 37% CS
Jordan: 19% win · 14% CS
Group J · Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, California
Portugal v Congo DR
Wed 17 Jun, 17:00 UTC
Portugal: 72% win · 44% CS
Congo DR: 11% win · 9% CS
Group K · Nrg Stadium, Houston, Texas
England v Croatia
Wed 17 Jun, 20:00 UTC
England: 63% win · 37% CS
Croatia: 17% win · 12% CS
Group L · At&t Stadium, Arlington, Texas
Ghana v Panama
Wed 17 Jun, 23:00 UTC
Ghana: 46% win · 33% CS
Panama: 28% win · 22% CS
Group L · Bmo Field, Toronto
Uzbekistan v Colombia
Thu 18 Jun, 02:00 UTC
Uzbekistan: 32% win · 23% CS
Colombia: 43% win · 29% CS
Group K · Estadio Banorte, Mexico City
Data source: sample · all underlying inputs are illustrative. Run python model/scripts/build_projections.py --matchday 1 to refresh.