Model health · warnings
- ! Start probabilities are over-generous for 18 team(s) (worst: Norway implies 17.8 starters vs 11). Fringe starters are less nailed than shown — confirm with announced XIs.
Matchday 4 · Wildcard · Scouting Bonus strategy
Scouting Bonus Console
Ranks low-owned World Cup players by their real routes to the Scouting Bonus — projections from market odds and real player stats, with a live squad optimiser, transfer planner and backtesting.
Deadline
—
Sun 28 Jun, 19:00 UTC
Players projected
823
20,000 sims each
Under 5%
751
scouting eligible
Top-15 bonus
+18.2
expected scouting pts
Last refresh
2 Jul, 19:07 UTC
model 0.2.0-mc
Top scouting-eligible picksBuild squad →
Highest final expected points among sub-5% players (base points + expected Scouting Bonus − risk). The squad builder assembles these into a valid, optimised 15-man squad.
- MID1.7%Bradley BarcolaFrance v Sweden · Goal threat+1.6014.6
- MID2.8%Rubén VargasSwitzerland v Algeria · Goal threat+1.3910.6
- FWD0.2%Nicolas PépéCôte d'Ivoire v Norway · Goal threat+1.349.4
- FWD2.6%Deniz UndavGermany v Paraguay · Goal threat+1.239.3
- FWD1.4%Breel EmboloSwitzerland v Algeria · Goal threat+1.369.2
- MID0.4%Álex BaenaSpain v Austria · Goal threat+1.239.1
- MID0.5%Malik TillmanUSA v Bosnia and Herzegovina · Goal threat+1.258.6
- MID2.7%Nathan SalibaCanada @ South Africa · Goal threat+1.268.6
Scoring rules · config-driven
model/config/scoring_rules.yaml · v1
- Appearance 60+
- +2
- Assist
- +3
- DEF/GK clean sheet
- +5
- MID goal
- +6
- FWD goal
- +5
- Scouting Bonus
- +2 · <5% · >4pts
Budget $100m · max 3/country · squad 2-5-5-3
Highly owned (≥7%) players the model rates as unlikely starters (under 55% start) — backup keepers, super-subs, rotation risks. Fade the field here: a trap the crowd captains is as valuable to avoid as a differential is to find.
DEF
Lisandro Martínez
Argentina · 9.3% owned
53% start
~45 min
GK
David Raya
Spain · 7.7% owned
5% start
~13 min
Sub-5% players most likely to post a big score — the upside that can justify a points hit. Sorted by ceiling × haul probability.
MID
Bradley Barcola
France v Sweden · 1.7%
ceil 24
74% haul
MID
Rubén Vargas
Switzerland v Algeria · 2.8%
ceil 18
57% haul
FWD
Deniz Undav
Germany v Paraguay · 2.6%
ceil 19
52% haul
FWD
Nicolas Pépé
Côte d'Ivoire v Norway · 0.2%
ceil 16
50% haul
MID
Álex Baena
Spain v Austria · 0.4%
ceil 16
50% haul
FWD
Breel Embolo
Switzerland v Algeria · 1.4%
ceil 16
49% haul
Odds blended with each side's actual tournament output. A favourite priced high but producing little is where knockout upsets live — fade heavy stacks there, and trim clean-sheet/captain confidence in likely extra-time games.
Australia v Egypt
Egypt: 55% adv
upset 45%
ET/pens 30%
advice: balanced
Côte d'Ivoire v Norway
Côte d'Ivoire: 56% adv
upset 44%
ET/pens 22%
advice: balanced
Netherlands v Morocco
Netherlands: 60% adv
upset 40%
ET/pens 25%
advice: balanced
Mexico v Ecuador
Mexico: 61% adv
upset 39%
ET/pens 29%
advice: balanced
Belgium v Senegal
Belgium: 63% adv
upset 37%
ET/pens 25%
advice: balanced
Portugal v Croatia
Portugal: 69% adv
upset 31%
ET/pens 24%
advice: balanced
Colombia v Ghana
Colombia: 70% adv
upset 31%
ET/pens 26%
advice: balanced
Brazil v Japan
live dog
Brazil: 70% adv
upset 30%
ET/pens 23%
- → Japan is out-performing its price (recent output +1.1 SD) — live upset candidate; its defenders are viable differentials.
advice: balanced
Switzerland v Algeria
Switzerland: 70% adv
upset 30%
ET/pens 22%
advice: balanced
South Africa v Canada
Canada: 71% adv
upset 30%
ET/pens 23%
advice: balanced
USA v Bosnia and Herzegovina
USA: 78% adv
upset 22%
ET/pens 18%
advice: stack favourite
Germany v Paraguay
fragile favlive dog
Germany: 79% adv
upset 21%
ET/pens 18%
- → Germany is priced at 70% but its recent output is 1.4 SD below the alive-team average — fade heavy stacks.
- → Paraguay is out-performing its price (recent output +0.9 SD) — live upset candidate; its defenders are viable differentials.
advice: diversify
England v Congo DR
England: 83% adv
upset 18%
ET/pens 18%
advice: stack favourite
Spain v Austria
Spain: 83% adv
upset 17%
ET/pens 17%
advice: stack favourite
France v Sweden
France: 84% adv
upset 16%
ET/pens 14%
advice: stack favourite
Argentina v Cabo Verde
Argentina: 86% adv
upset 14%
ET/pens 15%
advice: stack favourite
Sustainable = returns keep coming AND the underlying rates support them. One-off = a spike the player's routes can't explain — trap risk if chased.
FWDLionel Messi40
Argentina · 50.4% owned · sustainable
Nailed 90-minute playerPenalty takerGoal threat
next round proj 10.4 · recent avg 9.8
FWDKylian Mbappé36
France · 64.8% owned · sustainable
Nailed 90-minute playerGoal threatAssists / set pieces
next round proj 14.3 · recent avg 10.6
MIDOusmane Dembélé35
France · 34.5% owned · sustainable
Nailed 90-minute playerGoal threatAssists / set pieces
next round proj 13.8 · recent avg 16.8
MIDVinícius Júnior35
Brazil · 42.7% owned · sustainable
Nailed 90-minute playerGoal threatAssists / set pieces
next round proj 8.7 · recent avg 13.8
FWDErling Haaland30
Norway · 30.4% owned · sustainable
Nailed 90-minute playerGoal threatShots on target
next round proj 7.3 · recent avg 14.6
FWDIsmaïla Sarr30
Senegal · 1.1% owned · sustainable
Nailed 90-minute playerGoal threatAssists / set pieces
next round proj 6.4 · recent avg 13.8
FWDDeniz Undav29
Germany · 2.7% owned · sustainable
Goal threatAssists / set piecesShots on target
next round proj 9.2 · recent avg 6.2
MIDJohan Manzambi29
Switzerland · 8.5% owned · sustainable
Goal threatAssists / set piecesChance creation
next round proj 6.3 · recent avg 13.8
MIDIsmael Saibari29
Morocco · 10.9% owned · sustainable
Nailed 90-minute playerGoal threat
next round proj 5.4 · recent avg 9.2
| Strategy | Shape | Raw XI pts | vs Max | Ceiling | Floor | Avg own | Scout bonus | Captain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maximum points | 3-4-3 | 124.5 | — | 227 | 28 | 24.2% | +6.0 | Kylian Mbappé |
| Mini-League Chase | 3-4-3 | 123.2 | −1.3 | 228 | 25 | 21.2% | +6.0 | Kylian Mbappé |
| Balanced | 3-4-3 | 123.4 | −1.1 | 226 | 26 | 19.2% | +8.0 | Kylian Mbappé |
| Scouting Bonus | 3-5-2 | 91.6 | −32.9 | 176 | 11 | 1.7% | +16.8 | Bradley Barcola |
| Wildcard (multi-week) | 3-4-3 | 119.6 | −4.9 | 217 | 27 | 21.1% | +4.9 | Kylian Mbappé |
Scouting Bonus: This squad chases scouting bonus but gives up ~32.9 expected raw points vs Maximum Points. Use only if you are chasing aggressively.
“Raw XI pts” excludes scouting bonus — the honest comparison. “vs Max” is the expectation each strategy sacrifices against pure Maximum Points. Switch strategy live on the Squad page.
Wildcard watch · highest multi-week valuebuild wildcard squad →
Best players to own through the knockouts — GW3 points plus expected points across future rounds, weighted by their team's chance of progressing. Useful when you only have 2 transfers a week.
FWD
Kylian Mbappé
France · 85% advance · 1.9 future games
34.3
ko 76
MID
Ousmane Dembélé
France · 85% advance · 1.9 future games
34.0
ko 76
MID
Bradley Barcola
France · 85% advance · 1.9 future games
31.7
ko 76
FWD
Mikel Oyarzabal
Spain · 81% advance · 1.8 future games
24.5
ko 73
FWD
Harry Kane
England · 85% advance · 1.9 future games
21.7
ko 76
FWD
Lionel Messi
Argentina · 71% advance · 1.5 future games
21.6
ko 64
South Africa v Canada
Sun 28 Jun, 19:00 UTC
South Africa: 19% win · 19% CS
Canada: 57% win · 43% CS
Group A · Sofi Stadium, Inglewood, California
Brazil v Japan
Mon 29 Jun, 17:00 UTC
Brazil: 56% win · 42% CS
Japan: 19% win · 19% CS
Group C · Nrg Stadium, Houston, Texas
Germany v Paraguay
Mon 29 Jun, 20:30 UTC
Germany: 70% win · 44% CS
Paraguay: 12% win · 10% CS
Group E · Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts
Netherlands v Morocco
Tue 30 Jun, 01:00 UTC
Netherlands: 44% win · 30% CS
Morocco: 30% win · 22% CS
Group F · Estadio Bbva, Guadalupe
Côte d'Ivoire v Norway
Tue 30 Jun, 17:00 UTC
Côte d'Ivoire: 45% win · 21% CS
Norway: 32% win · 15% CS
Group E · At&t Stadium, Arlington, Texas
France v Sweden
Tue 30 Jun, 21:00 UTC
France: 77% win · 40% CS
Sweden: 9% win · 6% CS
Group I · Metlife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey
Mexico v Ecuador
Wed 1 Jul, 02:00 UTC
Mexico: 47% win · 46% CS
Ecuador: 24% win · 29% CS
Group A · Estadio Banorte, Mexico City
England v Congo DR
Wed 1 Jul, 16:00 UTC
England: 72% win · 56% CS
Congo DR: 10% win · 13% CS
Group L · Mercedes-benz Stadium, Atlanta, Georgia
Belgium v Senegal
Wed 1 Jul, 20:00 UTC
Belgium: 48% win · 28% CS
Senegal: 28% win · 18% CS
Group G · Lumen Field, Seattle, Washington
USA v Bosnia and Herzegovina
Thu 2 Jul, 00:00 UTC
USA: 70% win · 39% CS
Bosnia and Herzegovina: 13% win · 9% CS
Group D · Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, California
Spain v Austria
Thu 2 Jul, 19:00 UTC
Spain: 73% win · 47% CS
Austria: 10% win · 9% CS
Group H · Sofi Stadium, Inglewood, California
Portugal v Croatia
Thu 2 Jul, 23:00 UTC
Portugal: 60% win · 36% CS
Croatia: 19% win · 14% CS
Group K · Bmo Field, Toronto
Switzerland v Algeria
Fri 3 Jul, 03:00 UTC
Switzerland: 59% win · 38% CS
Algeria: 19% win · 15% CS
Group B · Bc Place, Vancouver
Australia v Egypt
Fri 3 Jul, 18:00 UTC
Australia: 30% win · 32% CS
Egypt: 40% win · 39% CS
Group D · At&t Stadium, Arlington, Texas
Argentina v Cabo Verde
Fri 3 Jul, 22:00 UTC
Argentina: 78% win · 59% CS
Cabo Verde: 7% win · 10% CS
Group J · Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida
Colombia v Ghana
Sat 4 Jul, 01:30 UTC
Colombia: 60% win · 52% CS
Ghana: 15% win · 21% CS
Group K · Geha Field At Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri
Data source: real ownership/form; market odds (15/16 fixtures); api-football rates (495 players) · all underlying inputs are illustrative. Run python model/scripts/build_projections.py --matchday 4 to refresh.