WWCFxWorld Cup Fantasy Advanced Model
Matchday123
Matchday 2 · Wildcard · Scouting Bonus strategy

Scouting Bonus Console

A Monte-Carlo projection model ranks low-owned World Cup players by their real routes to the Scouting Bonus. Phase 2 ships the model; the 15-man squad optimiser arrives in Phase 3.

Open player table →
Players projected
1242
20,000 sims each
Under 5%
1175
scouting eligible
Top-15 bonus
+14.8
expected scouting pts
Last refresh
17 Jun, 16:56 UTC
model 0.2.0-mc
Top scouting-eligible picksBuild squad →

Highest final expected points among sub-5% players (base points + expected Scouting Bonus − risk). The squad builder assembles these into a valid, optimised 15-man squad.

  • DEF
    Nathaniel Brown
    Germany v Côte d'Ivoire · Goal threat
    2.5%
    +1.21
    9.1
  • FWD
    Alexander Isak
    Sweden @ Netherlands · Goal threat
    3.6%
    +1.25
    8.2
  • MID
    Adrien Rabiot
    France v Iraq · Assists / set pieces
    0.4%
    +1.12
    7.2
  • FWD
    Folarin Balogun
    USA v Australia · Goal threat
    2.3%
    +1.05
    7.1
  • FWD
    Lautaro Martínez
    Argentina v Austria · Goal threat
    3.6%
    +1.07
    7.1
  • MID
    Martin Ødegaard
    Norway v Senegal · Assists / set pieces
    4.7%
    +0.89
    6.9
  • MID
    Yasin Ayari
    Sweden @ Netherlands · Goal threat
    1.0%
    +0.94
    6.9
  • FWD
    Breel Embolo
    Switzerland v Bosnia and Herzegovina · Goal threat
    2.5%
    +0.98
    6.4
Scoring rules · config-driven

model/config/scoring_rules.yaml · v1

Appearance 60+
+2
Assist
+3
DEF/GK clean sheet
+5
MID goal
+6
FWD goal
+5
Scouting Bonus
+2 · <5% · >4pts
Budget $100m · max 3/country · squad 2-5-5-3
Ownership movers · last 5hupdated 17 Jun, 19:38 UTC

Biggest ownership swings over the last ~5 hours — watch risers approaching the 5% line (they may lose scouting eligibility).

▲ Rising
  • FWDLionel Messi19.8→20.1%+0.3
  • FWDKylian Mbappé50.4→50.6%+0.2
  • DEFNathaniel Brown2.3→2.5%+0.2
  • DEFCristian Romero5.4→5.5%+0.1
  • GKEmiliano Martínez22.5→22.6%+0.1
  • MIDVinícius Júnior14.1→14.2%+0.1
▼ Falling
  • FWDJulián Alvarez15.2→15.0%-0.2
  • FWDMikel Oyarzabal19.1→18.9%-0.2
  • DEFNahuel Molina3.3→3.2%-0.1
  • MIDNico Paz1.4→1.3%-0.1
  • MIDMarcel Sabitzer3.7→3.6%-0.1
  • DEFMaxim De Cuyper2.8→2.7%-0.1
Haul watch · low-owned, high ceiling

Sub-5% players most likely to post a big score — the upside that can justify a points hit. Sorted by ceiling × haul probability.

DEF
Nathaniel Brown
Germany v Côte d'Ivoire · 2.5%
ceil 20
49% haul
FWD
Alexander Isak
Sweden @ Netherlands · 3.6%
ceil 15
43% haul
MID
Yasin Ayari
Sweden @ Netherlands · 1.0%
ceil 15
40% haul
FWD
Folarin Balogun
USA v Australia · 2.3%
ceil 14
38% haul
MID
Felix Nmecha
Germany v Côte d'Ivoire · 1.1%
ceil 14
35% haul
MID
Adrien Rabiot
France v Iraq · 0.4%
ceil 13
37% haul
Strategy comparison · same constraints, different objective
StrategyShapeXI ptsAvg ownScout bonusKO readyCaptain
Scouting Bonus3-4-382.02.7%+13.271Nathaniel Brown
Maximum points3-4-397.918.1%+5.975Kylian Mbappé
Balanced3-4-398.715.3%+8.373Kylian Mbappé
Wildcard (multi-week)3-4-398.017.4%+5.777Kylian Mbappé

Scouting trades raw points for sub-5% ownership; Wildcard maximises multi-week value (note the higher knockout readiness). Switch strategy live on the Squad page.

Wildcard watch · highest multi-week valuebuild wildcard squad →

Best players to own through the knockouts — GW3 points plus expected points across future rounds, weighted by their team's chance of progressing. Useful when you only have 2 transfers a week.

FWD
Kylian Mbappé
France · 99% advance · 2.3 future games
32.7
ko 84
MID
Michael Olise
France · 99% advance · 2.3 future games
21.5
ko 84
FWD
Erling Haaland
Norway · 83% advance · 1.6 future games
21.3
ko 70
DEF
Nathaniel Brown
Germany · 92% advance · 1.9 future games
21.2
ko 78
FWD
Kai Havertz
Germany · 92% advance · 1.9 future games
19.6
ko 78
MID
Adrien Rabiot
France · 99% advance · 2.3 future games
18.2
ko 84
Matchday 2 fixtures · model context
Czechia v South Africa
Thu 18 Jun, 16:00 UTC
Czechia: 54% win · 35% CS
South Africa: 22% win · 17% CS
Group A · Mercedes-benz Stadium, Atlanta, Georgia
Switzerland v Bosnia and Herzegovina
Thu 18 Jun, 19:00 UTC
Switzerland: 61% win · 41% CS
Bosnia and Herzegovina: 17% win · 15% CS
Group B · Sofi Stadium, Inglewood, California
Canada v Qatar
Thu 18 Jun, 22:00 UTC
Canada: 49% win · 39% CS
Qatar: 24% win · 23% CS
Group B · Bc Place, Vancouver
Mexico v Korea Republic
Fri 19 Jun, 01:00 UTC
Mexico: 55% win · 37% CS
Korea Republic: 22% win · 18% CS
Group A · Estadio Akron, Guadalajara
USA v Australia
Fri 19 Jun, 19:00 UTC
USA: 56% win · 33% CS
Australia: 22% win · 15% CS
Group D · Lumen Field, Seattle, Washington
Scotland v Morocco
Fri 19 Jun, 22:00 UTC
Scotland: 36% win · 32% CS
Morocco: 36% win · 32% CS
Group C · Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts
Brazil v Haiti
Sat 20 Jun, 00:30 UTC
Brazil: 72% win · 49% CS
Haiti: 10% win · 11% CS
Group C · Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Türkiye v Paraguay
Sat 20 Jun, 03:00 UTC
Türkiye: 58% win · 31% CS
Paraguay: 21% win · 13% CS
Group D · Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, California
Netherlands v Sweden
Sat 20 Jun, 17:00 UTC
Netherlands: 41% win · 17% CS
Sweden: 37% win · 15% CS
Group F · Nrg Stadium, Houston, Texas
Germany v Côte d'Ivoire
Sat 20 Jun, 20:00 UTC
Germany: 70% win · 39% CS
Côte d'Ivoire: 13% win · 9% CS
Group E · Bmo Field, Toronto
Ecuador v Curaçao
Sun 21 Jun, 00:00 UTC
Ecuador: 53% win · 38% CS
Curaçao: 23% win · 20% CS
Group E · Geha Field At Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri
Tunisia v Japan
Sun 21 Jun, 04:00 UTC
Tunisia: 27% win · 16% CS
Japan: 51% win · 28% CS
Group F · Estadio Bbva, Guadalupe
Spain v Saudi Arabia
Sun 21 Jun, 16:00 UTC
Spain: 72% win · 54% CS
Saudi Arabia: 10% win · 12% CS
Group H · Mercedes-benz Stadium, Atlanta, Georgia
Belgium v IR Iran
Sun 21 Jun, 19:00 UTC
Belgium: 60% win · 41% CS
IR Iran: 18% win · 16% CS
Group G · Sofi Stadium, Inglewood, California
Uruguay v Cabo Verde
Sun 21 Jun, 22:00 UTC
Uruguay: 61% win · 42% CS
Cabo Verde: 17% win · 16% CS
Group H · Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida
New Zealand v Egypt
Mon 22 Jun, 01:00 UTC
New Zealand: 33% win · 25% CS
Egypt: 41% win · 30% CS
Group G · Bc Place, Vancouver
Argentina v Austria
Mon 22 Jun, 17:00 UTC
Argentina: 65% win · 38% CS
Austria: 15% win · 11% CS
Group J · At&t Stadium, Arlington, Texas
France v Iraq
Mon 22 Jun, 21:00 UTC
France: 89% win · 56% CS
Iraq: 3% win · 3% CS
Group I · Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Norway v Senegal
Tue 23 Jun, 00:00 UTC
Norway: 71% win · 34% CS
Senegal: 13% win · 7% CS
Group I · Metlife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey
Jordan v Algeria
Tue 23 Jun, 03:00 UTC
Jordan: 37% win · 24% CS
Algeria: 38% win · 25% CS
Group J · Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, California
Portugal v Uzbekistan
Tue 23 Jun, 17:00 UTC
Portugal: 76% win · 49% CS
Uzbekistan: 9% win · 8% CS
Group K · Nrg Stadium, Houston, Texas
England v Ghana
Tue 23 Jun, 20:00 UTC
England: 78% win · 51% CS
Ghana: 8% win · 8% CS
Group L · Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts
Panama v Croatia
Tue 23 Jun, 23:00 UTC
Panama: 26% win · 20% CS
Croatia: 50% win · 34% CS
Group L · Bmo Field, Toronto
Colombia v Congo DR
Wed 24 Jun, 02:00 UTC
Colombia: 52% win · 34% CS
Congo DR: 24% win · 18% CS
Group K · Estadio Akron, Guadalajara

Data source: sample · all underlying inputs are illustrative. Run python model/scripts/build_projections.py --matchday 2 to refresh.