Matchday 2 · Wildcard · Scouting Bonus strategy
Scouting Bonus Console
Ranks low-owned World Cup players by their real routes to the Scouting Bonus — projections from market odds and real player stats, with a live squad optimiser, transfer planner and backtesting.
Deadline
—
Thu 18 Jun, 16:00 UTC
Players projected
1248
20,000 sims each
Under 5%
1180
scouting eligible
Top-15 bonus
+9.4
expected scouting pts
Last refresh
18 Jun, 14:42 UTC
model 0.2.0-mc
Top scouting-eligible picksBuild squad →
Highest final expected points among sub-5% players (base points + expected Scouting Bonus − risk). The squad builder assembles these into a valid, optimised 15-man squad.
- FWD0.5%Marcus ThuramFrance v Iraq · Goal threat+0.754.3
- MID1.6%Bradley BarcolaFrance v Iraq · Goal threat+0.694.1
- FWD1.1%Ollie WatkinsEngland v Ghana · Goal threat+0.643.5
- DEF2.0%Ladislav KrejcíCzechia v South Africa · Goal threat+0.693.5
- FWD2.4%Breel EmboloSwitzerland v Bosnia and Herzegovina · Goal threat+0.633.5
- FWD0.7%Gonçalo RamosPortugal v Uzbekistan · Goal threat+0.633.5
- FWD0.2%Ivan ToneyEngland v Ghana · Goal threat+0.623.4
- MID0.6%Adrien RabiotFrance v Iraq · Assists / set pieces+0.623.3
Scoring rules · config-driven
model/config/scoring_rules.yaml · v1
- Appearance 60+
- +2
- Assist
- +3
- DEF/GK clean sheet
- +5
- MID goal
- +6
- FWD goal
- +5
- Scouting Bonus
- +2 · <5% · >4pts
Budget $100m · max 3/country · squad 2-5-5-3
Sub-5% players most likely to post a big score — the upside that can justify a points hit. Sorted by ceiling × haul probability.
DEF
Ladislav Krejcí
Czechia v South Africa · 2.0%
ceil 14
24% haul
FWD
Marcus Thuram
France v Iraq · 0.5%
ceil 12
24% haul
MID
Bradley Barcola
France v Iraq · 1.6%
ceil 10
21% haul
DEF
Pedro Porro
Spain v Saudi Arabia · 4.9%
ceil 10
19% haul
DEF
Lucas Hernández
France v Iraq · 2.0%
ceil 10
19% haul
DEF
Malo Gusto
France v Iraq · 0.5%
ceil 10
19% haul
| Strategy | Shape | Raw XI pts | vs Max | Ceiling | Floor | Avg own | Scout bonus | Captain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scouting Bonus | 3-4-3 | 40.5 | — | — | — | 1.8% | +8.9 | Marcus Thuram |
| Maximum points | 4-3-3 | 47.2 | — | — | — | 25.8% | +1.1 | Kylian Mbappé |
| Balanced | 3-4-3 | 48.4 | — | — | — | 24.7% | +3.0 | Kylian Mbappé |
| Wildcard (multi-week) | 3-4-3 | 47.7 | — | — | — | 24.0% | +2.6 | Kylian Mbappé |
“Raw XI pts” excludes scouting bonus — the honest comparison. “vs Max” is the expectation each strategy sacrifices against pure Maximum Points. Switch strategy live on the Squad page.
Wildcard watch · highest multi-week valuebuild wildcard squad →
Best players to own through the knockouts — GW3 points plus expected points across future rounds, weighted by their team's chance of progressing. Useful when you only have 2 transfers a week.
FWD
Kylian Mbappé
France · 99% advance · 2.3 future games
12.4
ko 54
DEF
Nathaniel Brown
Germany · 91% advance · 1.9 future games
11.9
ko 50
FWD
Harry Kane
England · 99% advance · 2.3 future games
10.1
ko 54
DEF
Nico Schlotterbeck
Germany · 91% advance · 1.9 future games
9.4
ko 50
DEF
Joshua Kimmich
Germany · 91% advance · 1.9 future games
9.2
ko 50
FWD
Lionel Messi
Argentina · 95% advance · 2.0 future games
9.0
ko 52
Czechia v South Africa
Thu 18 Jun, 16:00 UTC
Czechia: 52% win · 38% CS
South Africa: 23% win · 20% CS
Group A · Mercedes-benz Stadium, Atlanta, Georgia
Switzerland v Bosnia and Herzegovina
Thu 18 Jun, 19:00 UTC
Switzerland: 60% win · 43% CS
Bosnia and Herzegovina: 17% win · 16% CS
Group B · Sofi Stadium, Inglewood, California
Canada v Qatar
Thu 18 Jun, 22:00 UTC
Canada: 68% win · 48% CS
Qatar: 12% win · 13% CS
Group B · Bc Place, Vancouver
Mexico v Korea Republic
Fri 19 Jun, 01:00 UTC
Mexico: 49% win · 37% CS
Korea Republic: 25% win · 23% CS
Group A · Estadio Akron, Guadalajara
USA v Australia
Fri 19 Jun, 19:00 UTC
USA: 58% win · 40% CS
Australia: 19% win · 17% CS
Group D · Lumen Field, Seattle, Washington
Scotland v Morocco
Fri 19 Jun, 22:00 UTC
Scotland: 22% win · 23% CS
Morocco: 51% win · 42% CS
Group C · Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts
Brazil v Haiti
Sat 20 Jun, 00:30 UTC
Brazil: 83% win · 54% CS
Haiti: 6% win · 6% CS
Group C · Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Türkiye v Paraguay
Sat 20 Jun, 03:00 UTC
Türkiye: 50% win · 35% CS
Paraguay: 25% win · 20% CS
Group D · Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, California
Netherlands v Sweden
Sat 20 Jun, 17:00 UTC
Netherlands: 51% win · 31% CS
Sweden: 25% win · 17% CS
Group F · Nrg Stadium, Houston, Texas
Germany v Côte d'Ivoire
Sat 20 Jun, 20:00 UTC
Germany: 70% win · 39% CS
Côte d'Ivoire: 13% win · 9% CS
Group E · Bmo Field, Toronto
Ecuador v Curaçao
Sun 21 Jun, 00:00 UTC
Ecuador: 78% win · 54% CS
Curaçao: 7% win · 8% CS
Group E · Geha Field At Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri
Tunisia v Japan
Sun 21 Jun, 04:00 UTC
Tunisia: 17% win · 17% CS
Japan: 60% win · 44% CS
Group F · Estadio Bbva, Guadalupe
Spain v Saudi Arabia
Sun 21 Jun, 16:00 UTC
Spain: 82% win · 58% CS
Saudi Arabia: 5% win · 7% CS
Group H · Mercedes-benz Stadium, Atlanta, Georgia
Belgium v IR Iran
Sun 21 Jun, 19:00 UTC
Belgium: 64% win · 46% CS
IR Iran: 14% win · 14% CS
Group G · Sofi Stadium, Inglewood, California
Uruguay v Cabo Verde
Sun 21 Jun, 22:00 UTC
Uruguay: 63% win · 48% CS
Cabo Verde: 15% win · 17% CS
Group H · Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida
New Zealand v Egypt
Mon 22 Jun, 01:00 UTC
New Zealand: 21% win · 20% CS
Egypt: 54% win · 41% CS
Group G · Bc Place, Vancouver
Argentina v Austria
Mon 22 Jun, 17:00 UTC
Argentina: 61% win · 42% CS
Austria: 17% win · 15% CS
Group J · At&t Stadium, Arlington, Texas
France v Iraq
Mon 22 Jun, 21:00 UTC
France: 87% win · 58% CS
Iraq: 4% win · 5% CS
Group I · Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Norway v Senegal
Tue 23 Jun, 00:00 UTC
Norway: 50% win · 31% CS
Senegal: 26% win · 18% CS
Group I · Metlife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey
Jordan v Algeria
Tue 23 Jun, 03:00 UTC
Jordan: 20% win · 18% CS
Algeria: 56% win · 39% CS
Group J · Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, California
Portugal v Uzbekistan
Tue 23 Jun, 17:00 UTC
Portugal: 78% win · 52% CS
Uzbekistan: 7% win · 8% CS
Group K · Nrg Stadium, Houston, Texas
England v Ghana
Tue 23 Jun, 20:00 UTC
England: 75% win · 52% CS
Ghana: 9% win · 10% CS
Group L · Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts
Panama v Croatia
Tue 23 Jun, 23:00 UTC
Panama: 19% win · 17% CS
Croatia: 58% win · 40% CS
Group L · Bmo Field, Toronto
Colombia v Congo DR
Wed 24 Jun, 02:00 UTC
Colombia: 62% win · 46% CS
Congo DR: 16% win · 16% CS
Group K · Estadio Akron, Guadalajara
Data source: sample · all underlying inputs are illustrative. Run python model/scripts/build_projections.py --matchday 2 to refresh.