Matchday 3 · Wildcard · Scouting Bonus strategy
Scouting Bonus Console
Ranks low-owned World Cup players by their real routes to the Scouting Bonus — projections from market odds and real player stats, with a live squad optimiser, transfer planner and backtesting.
Deadline
—
Wed 24 Jun, 19:00 UTC
Players projected
1238
20,000 sims each
Under 5%
1167
scouting eligible
Top-15 bonus
+17.1
expected scouting pts
Last refresh
26 Jun, 12:57 UTC
model 0.2.0-mc
Top scouting-eligible picksBuild squad →
Highest final expected points among sub-5% players (base points + expected Scouting Bonus − risk). The squad builder assembles these into a valid, optimised 15-man squad.
- MID2.4%Ryan GravenberchNetherlands @ Tunisia · Assists / set pieces+1.5011.2
- MID4.9%Daichi KamadaJapan v Sweden · Goal threat+0.7310.9
- MID2.3%Keito NakamuraJapan v Sweden · Goal threat+1.319.9
- MID0.9%Lucas PaquetáBrazil @ Scotland · Assists / set pieces+1.328.7
- MID0.8%Rubén VargasSwitzerland v Canada · Goal threat+1.158.3
- MID2.3%Yasin AyariSweden @ Japan · Goal threat+1.098.3
- MID3.1%Granit XhakaSwitzerland v Canada · Goal threat+1.108.1
- MID1.4%Maxi AraújoUruguay v Spain · Goal threat+1.158.0
Scoring rules · config-driven
model/config/scoring_rules.yaml · v1
- Appearance 60+
- +2
- Assist
- +3
- DEF/GK clean sheet
- +5
- MID goal
- +6
- FWD goal
- +5
- Scouting Bonus
- +2 · <5% · >4pts
Budget $100m · max 3/country · squad 2-5-5-3
Highly owned (≥7%) players the model rates as unlikely starters (under 55% start) — backup keepers, super-subs, rotation risks. Fade the field here: a trap the crowd captains is as valuable to avoid as a differential is to find.
DEF
Nico O'Reilly
England · 10.9% owned
50% start
~43 min
FWD
Julián Alvarez
Argentina · 9.8% owned
35% start
~33 min
GK
David Raya
Spain · 9.0% owned
4% start
~13 min
DEF
Antonio Rüdiger
Germany · 7.9% owned
35% start
~33 min
Sub-5% players most likely to post a big score — the upside that can justify a points hit. Sorted by ceiling × haul probability.
MID
Daichi Kamada
Japan v Sweden · 4.9%
ceil 22
63% haul
MID
Ryan Gravenberch
Netherlands @ Tunisia · 2.4%
ceil 19
63% haul
MID
Keito Nakamura
Japan v Sweden · 2.3%
ceil 18
53% haul
MID
Rubén Vargas
Switzerland v Canada · 0.8%
ceil 18
45% haul
MID
Yasin Ayari
Sweden @ Japan · 2.3%
ceil 16
48% haul
MID
Bradley Barcola
France @ Norway · 1.6%
ceil 17
44% haul
| Strategy | Shape | Raw XI pts | vs Max | Ceiling | Floor | Avg own | Scout bonus | Captain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scouting Bonus | 3-5-2 | 93.7 | — | — | — | 2.4% | +14.5 | Ryan Gravenberch |
| Maximum points | 3-5-2 | 135.2 | — | — | — | 20.8% | +2.3 | Vinícius Júnior |
| Balanced | 3-5-2 | 134.7 | — | — | — | 20.4% | +5.2 | Vinícius Júnior |
| Wildcard (multi-week) | 3-5-2 | 135.3 | — | — | — | 19.6% | +3.1 | Vinícius Júnior |
“Raw XI pts” excludes scouting bonus — the honest comparison. “vs Max” is the expectation each strategy sacrifices against pure Maximum Points. Switch strategy live on the Squad page.
Wildcard watch · highest multi-week valuebuild wildcard squad →
Best players to own through the knockouts — GW3 points plus expected points across future rounds, weighted by their team's chance of progressing. Useful when you only have 2 transfers a week.
MID
Vinícius Júnior
Brazil · 99% advance · 0.0 future games
16.7
ko 89
MID
Ismael Saibari
Morocco · 97% advance · 0.0 future games
15.7
ko 87
FWD
Lionel Messi
Argentina · 99% advance · 0.0 future games
13.4
ko 89
MID
Crysencio Summerville
Netherlands · 89% advance · 0.0 future games
12.8
ko 58
MID
Michael Olise
France · 99% advance · 0.0 future games
11.7
ko 89
MID
Ryan Gravenberch
Netherlands · 89% advance · 0.0 future games
11.2
ko 80
Bosnia and Herzegovina v Qatar
Wed 24 Jun, 19:00 UTC
Bosnia and Herzegovina: 66% win · 38% CS
Qatar: 15% win · 11% CS
Group B · Lumen Field, Seattle, Washington
Switzerland v Canada
Wed 24 Jun, 19:00 UTC
Switzerland: 42% win · 29% CS
Canada: 32% win · 24% CS
Group B · Bc Place, Vancouver
Scotland v Brazil
Wed 24 Jun, 22:00 UTC
Scotland: 10% win · 12% CS
Brazil: 72% win · 53% CS
Group C · Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida
Morocco v Haiti
Wed 24 Jun, 22:00 UTC
Morocco: 80% win · 53% CS
Haiti: 7% win · 7% CS
Group C · Mercedes-benz Stadium, Atlanta, Georgia
Czechia v Mexico
Thu 25 Jun, 01:00 UTC
Czechia: 18% win · 17% CS
Mexico: 59% win · 41% CS
Group A · Estadio Banorte, Mexico City
South Africa v Korea Republic
Thu 25 Jun, 01:00 UTC
South Africa: 21% win · 23% CS
Korea Republic: 52% win · 44% CS
Group A · Estadio Bbva, Guadalupe
Curaçao v Côte d'Ivoire
Thu 25 Jun, 20:00 UTC
Curaçao: 23% win · 19% CS
Côte d'Ivoire: 53% win · 36% CS
Group E · Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Ecuador v Germany
Thu 25 Jun, 20:00 UTC
Ecuador: 19% win · 15% CS
Germany: 60% win · 38% CS
Group E · Metlife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey
Tunisia v Netherlands
Thu 25 Jun, 23:00 UTC
Tunisia: 6% win · 5% CS
Netherlands: 82% win · 50% CS
Group F · Geha Field At Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri
Japan v Sweden
Thu 25 Jun, 23:00 UTC
Japan: 54% win · 28% CS
Sweden: 25% win · 14% CS
Group F · At&t Stadium, Arlington, Texas
Paraguay v Australia
Fri 26 Jun, 02:00 UTC
Paraguay: 34% win · 34% CS
Australia: 36% win · 36% CS
Group D · Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, California
Türkiye v USA
Fri 26 Jun, 02:00 UTC
Türkiye: 24% win · 18% CS
USA: 52% win · 33% CS
Group D · Sofi Stadium, Inglewood, California
Norway v France
Fri 26 Jun, 19:00 UTC
Norway: 22% win · 14% CS
France: 56% win · 32% CS
Group I · Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts
Senegal v Iraq
Fri 26 Jun, 19:00 UTC
Senegal: 72% win · 42% CS
Iraq: 11% win · 9% CS
Group I · Bmo Field, Toronto
Cabo Verde v Saudi Arabia
Sat 27 Jun, 00:00 UTC
Cabo Verde: 41% win · 31% CS
Saudi Arabia: 32% win · 26% CS
Group H · Nrg Stadium, Houston, Texas
Uruguay v Spain
Sat 27 Jun, 00:00 UTC
Uruguay: 16% win · 14% CS
Spain: 63% win · 43% CS
Group H · Estadio Akron, Guadalajara
Egypt v IR Iran
Sat 27 Jun, 03:00 UTC
Egypt: 42% win · 38% CS
IR Iran: 29% win · 29% CS
Group G · Lumen Field, Seattle, Washington
New Zealand v Belgium
Sat 27 Jun, 03:00 UTC
New Zealand: 9% win · 9% CS
Belgium: 74% win · 49% CS
Group G · Bc Place, Vancouver
Croatia v Ghana
Sat 27 Jun, 21:00 UTC
Croatia: 49% win · 40% CS
Ghana: 24% win · 24% CS
Group L · Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Panama v England
Sat 27 Jun, 21:00 UTC
Panama: 9% win · 8% CS
England: 76% win · 49% CS
Group L · Metlife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey
Colombia v Portugal
Sat 27 Jun, 23:30 UTC
Colombia: 25% win · 21% CS
Portugal: 50% win · 36% CS
Group K · Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida
Congo DR v Uzbekistan
Sat 27 Jun, 23:30 UTC
Congo DR: 54% win · 38% CS
Uzbekistan: 22% win · 19% CS
Group K · Mercedes-benz Stadium, Atlanta, Georgia
Jordan v Argentina
Sun 28 Jun, 02:00 UTC
Jordan: 7% win · 7% CS
Argentina: 80% win · 54% CS
Group J · At&t Stadium, Arlington, Texas
Algeria v Austria
Sun 28 Jun, 02:00 UTC
Algeria: 28% win · 27% CS
Austria: 44% win · 37% CS
Group J · Geha Field At Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri
Data source: real ownership/form; market odds (23/24 fixtures); api-football rates (558 players) · all underlying inputs are illustrative. Run python model/scripts/build_projections.py --matchday 3 to refresh.