- ! Start probabilities are over-generous for 13 team(s) (worst: Norway implies 17.5 starters vs 11). Fringe starters are less nailed than shown — confirm with announced XIs.
- ! Saved squad is for round 4, projections are round 5 — sync your team after making transfers.
Scouting Bonus Console
Ranks low-owned World Cup players by their real routes to the Scouting Bonus — projections from market odds and real player stats, with a live squad optimiser, transfer planner and backtesting.
Highest final expected points among sub-5% players (base points + expected Scouting Bonus − risk). The squad builder assembles these into a valid, optimised 15-man squad.
- MID3.8%Bradley BarcolaFrance @ Paraguay · Goal threat+1.128.3
- DEF4.6%Pedro PorroSpain @ Portugal · Goal threat+0.956.7
- MID1.7%Álex BaenaSpain @ Portugal · Goal threat+0.876.0
- MID2.2%Youri TielemansBelgium @ USA · Goal threat+0.705.5
- DEF1.7%Issa DiopMorocco @ Canada · Goal threat+0.945.3
- FWD1.6%Breel EmboloSwitzerland v Colombia · Goal threat+0.855.2
- FWD1.7%Romelu LukakuBelgium @ USA · Goal threat+0.855.2
- DEF4.2%Marcos LlorenteSpain @ Portugal · Clean sheet+0.925.0
model/config/scoring_rules.yaml · v1
- Appearance 60+
- +2
- Assist
- +3
- DEF/GK clean sheet
- +5
- MID goal
- +6
- FWD goal
- +5
- Scouting Bonus
- +2 · <5% · >4pts
Highly owned (≥7%) players the model rates as unlikely starters (under 55% start) — backup keepers, super-subs, rotation risks. Fade the field here: a trap the crowd captains is as valuable to avoid as a differential is to find.
Sub-5% players most likely to post a big score — the upside that can justify a points hit. Sorted by ceiling × haul probability.
Odds blended with each side's actual tournament output. A favourite priced high but producing little is where knockout upsets live — fade heavy stacks there, and trim clean-sheet/captain confidence in likely extra-time games.
- → Argentina is priced at 70% but its recent output is 0.8 SD below the alive-team average — fade heavy stacks.
Sustainable = returns keep coming AND the underlying rates support them. One-off = a spike the player's routes can't explain — trap risk if chased.
| Strategy | Shape | Raw XI pts | vs Max | Ceiling | Floor | Avg own | Scout bonus | Captain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maximum points | 3-4-3 | 93.6 | — | 188 | 13 | 25.0% | +2.6 | Ousmane Dembélé |
| Mini-League Chase | 3-4-3 | 91.6 | −2 | 189 | 12 | 21.7% | +4.8 | Ousmane Dembélé |
| Balanced | 3-4-3 | 91.6 | −2 | 189 | 12 | 21.7% | +5.1 | Ousmane Dembélé |
| Scouting Bonus | 3-5-2 | 62.2 | −31.4 | 137 | 6 | 2.4% | +12.1 | Bradley Barcola |
| Wildcard (multi-week) | 3-4-3 | 90.9 | −2.7 | 184 | 13 | 22.1% | +4.5 | Ousmane Dembélé |
Scouting Bonus: This squad chases scouting bonus but gives up ~31.4 expected raw points vs Maximum Points. Use only if you are chasing aggressively.
“Raw XI pts” excludes scouting bonus — the honest comparison. “vs Max” is the expectation each strategy sacrifices against pure Maximum Points. Switch strategy live on the Squad page.
Best players to own through the knockouts — GW3 points plus expected points across future rounds, weighted by their team's chance of progressing. Useful when you only have 2 transfers a week.
Data source: real ownership/form; market odds (8/8 fixtures); api-football rates (272 players) · all underlying inputs are illustrative. Run python model/scripts/build_projections.py --matchday 5 to refresh.